The presidency of Hu Jintao has had a remarkably charmed political honeymoon so far. Presiding over the world’s economic powerhouse, he has overseen China’s preparation for the Olympics, charmed most of the world, especially the U.S. with diplomatic visits to over 25 countries, seen the people of Taiwan grow weary with the independent minded DPP and move closer to the ‘mainland friendly’ KMT and keep under a tight lid the tensions generated by a market economy operating under tight state control.
But even with all this under his belt, he must now be contemplating the irony in his rise to power. As Secretary of the Party Committee of Tibet Autonomous Region from 1988 to 1992, it was his firm handling of the 1989 Lhasa revolt that brought him to the attention of the party in Beijing. Now it is that same region, Tibet, with its strong attachment to Tibetan culture, which could shake the presidency of Hu Jintao to its foundations.
Most of the people of the developed and western world, as opposed to the diplomatic stance of their governments, think of Tibet as an historic independent country, occupied by the Chinese in 1951. This is the view fostered by the Central Tibetan Administration, the government in exile in Dharamshala, India, and ran by the Dalai Lama. Although the Dalai Lama has now amended his position to a ‘middle way’ which avoids the independence issue, the Chinese authorities still refuse to engage with him in any meaningful way.
The Chinese claim Tibet has never been an independent state, and that no government of any country in the world has ever recognized Tibet as such. They claim, with some justification, that they have been inextricably intertwined with Tibet since the 7th Century and that the presence of a Chinese high commissioner as early as 1727 proved Lhasa owed its loyalty to them. They continue to insist that they will not talk with members of the Government-in-Exile, and that the issue of Tibet is an "internal Chinese affair".
Like most ethnic problems the world over, the Tibetan question seems intractable. The most likely way forward, dialogue with the Dalai Lama, may now be too little too late. By his acceptance of Chinese authority over Tibet, he may lose the loyalty of Tibetans both inside and outside of Tibet. The leader of the Tibetan Youth Congress, Twesang Rigzin, at Dharamshala, quoted in the Daily Telegraph said “There is a growing frustration within the Tibetan community, especially in the young generation. I certainly hope the Middle Way approach will be reviewed. As we can see from the protests here and all over the world, the Tibetan people remain committed to achieving independence."
Another problem is the definition of Tibet itself. When the Dalai Lama refers to ‘Tibet’ he means historic Tibet, which is over twice the size of the present day Tibet Autonomous Region, while the Chinese see only the Autonomous Region as Tibet.
These problems, coupled with the officially sanctioned policy of Han Chinese immigration to Tibetan areas, coupled with their insistence that Mandarin is the official language, will ensure that Tibet will be a constant drag on China’s political and economic development. It will continue to mar China’s diplomatic drive for legitimacy and tarnish China’s human right record, which is already in poor standing